Hokkaido Roads Over New Year [2026-27] | Expressway Sections Prone to Blizzard Closures, Forecast Congestion Days, No Holiday Discount, and New Chitose Airport Parking

NEXCO East Japan Hokkaido Regional Head Office has not yet released its traffic forecast for the 2026-27 New Year period (verified 2026-10-14). The previous forecast was announced on November 26, 2025, and the one before that on November 28, 2023. While you wait, this article lays out what you can use to decide, drawing only on primary sources: the previous (2025-26) forecast and actual results, four years of records of road sections stopped by snow and blizzards, the holiday discount, and parking at New Chitose Airport. I will update the numbers once the official 2026-27 announcement is out.

The conclusion first. The previous forecast was “up to 1 km at the Kitahiroshima IC exit on the E5 Do-o Expressway on January 2 and 3,” but the longest congestion that actually occurred was 9.0 km near Yubari on the Doto Expressway, caused by a closure due to an accident. Closures due to snow or blizzards also made the worst-congestion table in three of the four years (2022-23 is listed as “snow”). On New Year roads in Hokkaido, stoppages that the forecast does not cover stand out (NEXCO East Japan Hokkaido Regional Head Office announcement of January 6, 2026, verified 2026-10-14).

For temperatures and clothing, see Hokkaido New Year temperatures and what to wear; for booking and routes, see the Hokkaido New Year campervan trip guide. This article covers roads only.

Is the 2026-27 congestion forecast out yet? The previous forecast was up to 1 km at Kitahiroshima IC

The 2026-27 forecast has not been released. Once it is, it will appear in a NEXCO East Japan press release (Hokkaido Regional Head Office). For the previous 2025-26 period, the dates were a 10-day span from Reiwa 7 (2025) December 26 (Fri) to Reiwa 8 (2026) January 4 (Sun), and the forecast had just one entry: “up to 1 km at the Kitahiroshima IC exit on the E5 Do-o Expressway on January 2 (Fri) and 3 (Sat).” It covered two sections: Sapporo-Minami IC to Kitahiroshima IC (inbound, toward Tomakomai) and Wattsu Smart IC to Kitahiroshima IC (outbound, toward Sapporo) (NEXCO East Japan announcement of November 26, 2025, verified 2026-10-14).

Date	Forecast time window (peak)	Max congestion length	Location
Jan 2 (Fri)	11:00–14:00 (12:00)	1 km	Do-o Expressway, Kitahiroshima IC exit
Jan 3 (Sat)	11:00–13:00 (12:00)	1 km	Do-o Expressway, Kitahiroshima IC exit

The same document compares the number of congestion events caused by traffic concentration. The fiscal Reiwa 6 (2024) result was 19 events of 1 km or longer, of which 2 were caused by traffic concentration. The fiscal Reiwa 7 (2025) forecast put congestion from traffic concentration at 2 events. The forecast covers traffic concentration only; congestion from accidents or blizzards is not included. In fact, the 2023-24 forecast page (announced November 28, 2023) states, “This forecast assumes clear weather” (announcement of November 28, 2023, verified 2026-10-14).

How much congestion actually occurred last time? 7 events, the longest 9.0 km near Yubari on the Doto Expressway

According to the preliminary report of January 6, 2026, the 2025-26 New Year period (December 26 to January 4) had average daily traffic of 11,700 vehicles/day, 104% of the same period the year before, and 7 congestion events of 1 km or longer, down 9 from 16 the previous year. The longest was 9.0 km, peaking at 16:25 on January 2 (Fri), headed by the Yubari IC area on the Doto Expressway (inbound, toward Sapporo), caused by a closure due to an accident and traffic concentration (NEXCO East Japan announcement of January 6, 2026, verified 2026-10-14). The forecast had been 1 km at Kitahiroshima IC, so the longest congestion occurred outside the forecast.

Rank	Congestion length	Peak date and time	Section (head of congestion)	Cause
1	9.0 km	Jan 2 (Fri) 16:25	Doto Expressway, Mukawa-Hobetsu to Yubari (inbound, toward Sapporo), near Yubari IC	Closure due to an accident and traffic concentration
2	4.4 km	Dec 26 (Fri) 16:25	Do-o Expressway, Kitahiroshima to Sapporo-Minami (outbound, toward Sapporo), near Sapporo-Minami IC	Closure due to blizzard
3	1.3 km	Jan 2 (Fri) 12:50	Do-o Expressway, Wattsu Smart to Kitahiroshima (outbound, toward Sapporo), near Kitahiroshima IC	Traffic concentration
4	1.0 km	Jan 2 (Fri) 10:30	Sasson Expressway, Fushiko to Sapporo-Kita (inbound, toward Otaru), near Sapporo-Kita IC	Accident
4	1.0 km	Jan 3 (Sat) 9:05	Do-o Expressway, Chitose-Eniwa JCT to Eniwa (outbound, toward Sapporo), near Eniwa IC	Closure due to an accident
4	1.0 km	Jan 3 (Sat) 10:15	Do-o Expressway, Wattsu Smart to Kitahiroshima (outbound, toward Sapporo), near Kitahiroshima IC	Traffic concentration
4	1.0 km	Jan 4 (Sun) 14:20	Do-o Expressway, Fukagawa JCT to Takikawa (inbound, toward Sapporo), near Takikawa IC	Closure due to blizzard

Lining up the counts for the past four years shows large differences from year to year: 9 events in 2022-23, 2 in 2023-24, 16 in 2024-25, and 7 in 2025-26. What makes the difference is less congestion itself than closures due to accidents and blizzards. The 2024-25 preliminary report says, “congestion mainly from closures due to blizzards and congestion from accidents occurred frequently.”

New Year period	Dates	Congestion events of 1 km or longer	Longest congestion
2025-26	12/26–1/4 (10 days)	7	9.0 km, Doto Expressway near Yubari IC (closure due to an accident and traffic concentration)
2024-25	12/27–1/5 (10 days)	16	4.0 km, Do-o Expressway, Eniwa to Wattsu Smart (accident and traffic concentration, one each)
2023-24	12/28–1/4 (8 days)	2 (*)	3.0 km, Do-o Expressway, Bibai to Mikasa (lane restriction due to construction)
2022-23	12/28–1/4 (8 days)	9	6.1 km, Doto Expressway, Shimukappu to Mukawa-Hobetsu (traffic concentration after a closure was lifted)

Which sections are most often stopped by blizzards? Four years of results

From the “especially long congestion” listed in NEXCO announcements, I have lined up by year those caused by closures due to snow or blizzards. Only the worst 5 are listed, so shorter congestion and closures that produced no congestion are not included. What stands out is the Naie-Sunagawa to Bibai section (inbound) of the Do-o Expressway, which appears in both 2022-23 and 2024-25.

New Year period	Date and time	Section	Congestion length	Cause as listed
2025-26	Dec 26 (Fri) 16:25	Do-o Expressway, Kitahiroshima to Sapporo-Minami (outbound, toward Sapporo)	4.4 km	Closure due to blizzard
2025-26	Jan 4 (Sun) 14:20	Do-o Expressway, Fukagawa JCT to Takikawa (inbound, toward Sapporo)	1.0 km	Closure due to blizzard
2024-25	Jan 2 (Thu) 14:00	Do-o Expressway, Naie-Sunagawa to Bibai (inbound, toward Sapporo)	3.0 km	Closure due to blizzard
2024-25	Dec 28 (Sat) 17:35	Do-o Expressway, Naie-Sunagawa to Bibai (inbound, toward Sapporo)	2.0 km	Closure due to blizzard
2024-25	Dec 31 (Tue) 11:50	Do-o Expressway, Ebetsu-Nishi to Ebetsu-Higashi (outbound, toward Asahikawa)	2.0 km	Closure due to blizzard
2022-23	Jan 2 (Mon) around 16:10	Do-o Expressway, Naie-Sunagawa to Bibai (inbound, toward Sapporo)	4.4 km	Tail end of a closure due to snow
2022-23	Jan 3 (Tue) around 15:20	Do-o Expressway, Naie-Sunagawa to Bibai (inbound, toward Sapporo)	3.3 km	Tail end of a closure due to snow
2022-23	Jan 2 (Mon) around 17:40	Do-o Expressway, Takikawa to Naie-Sunagawa (inbound, toward Sapporo)	1.0 km	Tail end of a closure due to snow

On the Doto Expressway, the records are of accidents, not snow. In 2025-26 there was 9.0 km near Yubari IC (closure due to an accident and traffic concentration). In 2022-23 there was 6.1 km between Shimukappu and Mukawa-Hobetsu (traffic concentration after a closure was lifted, near Shimukappu Tunnel) and up to 2.1 km on the inbound side between Tokachi-Shimizu and Tomamu (tail end of a closure due to an accident).

NEXCO itself points out what to watch for on winter expressways. On expressways in Hokkaido in winter, accidents caused by steering or braking errors increase to about four times the summer count, and even without snowfall the road surface may be frozen because of the temperature swing between morning and evening (announcement of November 28, 2023, verified 2026-10-14). It also urges switching to winter tires, winter wipers, and antifreeze washer fluid, and checking for loose wheel nuts after a tire change (announcement of January 9, 2024, verified 2026-10-14). Decisions in bad weather are covered in Bad-weather tips for campervan trips.

What about expressway construction and the holiday discount over New Year?

For 2026-27, no expressway construction schedule has been announced (as of 2026-10-14). That does not mean there will be no construction, though. The largest congestion in 2023-24 was 3.0 km on the Do-o Expressway between Bibai and Mikasa (inbound) on January 2 (Tue), caused by a lane restriction for construction (announcement of January 9, 2024, verified 2026-10-14). For 2026-27 construction and restrictions, check the restriction information on DoraTora (NEXCO real-time traffic site) before you leave.

As for the holiday discount (ETC), the previous forecast document stated explicitly, “The holiday discount does not apply during the New Year period” (announcement of November 26, 2025, verified 2026-10-14). In 2023-24, December 30 (Sat) to January 3 (Wed) was excluded. The excluded dates for 2026-27 must await the announcement. If you have been budgeting expressway costs on the assumption of the holiday discount, check the rates by vehicle class in the Hokkaido expressway toll quick-reference table and estimate without the discount so you will not come up short.

Is the New Chitose Airport parking crowded over New Year? Parking Lot D was opened temporarily last time

For the previous 2025-26 period, Hokkaido Airports Co. announced on December 24, 2025 the temporary opening of “Parking Lot D.” It was usable from 10:00 on December 30, 2025 (Tue), with up to 500 spaces and a crushed-stone surface. As a free temporary lot for same-day use only, it could be used only from 10:00 to 16:00 on December 30, 2025 to January 3, 2026 and January 10 to 12, with a free airport shuttle bus running (Hokkaido Airports Co. press release, verified 2026-10-14). Because it is for same-day use only, it cannot be used for sleeping in the vehicle or for long-term parking. For 2026-27, check the announcements from Hokkaido Airports.

For the airport’s parking lots themselves, a notice titled “To customers using the parking lots over the New Year” was also issued on December 13, 2023 (New Chitose Airport, verified 2026-10-14). For flight crowding, check the airlines’ and the airport’s announcements. Please check the announcements from the airlines and the airport.

Pickup and return of vehicles around the airport differ by rental company in terms of shuttles and locations. How to choose a rental departing from New Chitose Airport is summarized in Campervan rentals from New Chitose Airport.

If you travel by campervan, which days are less likely to get stuck?

Here are the records up to last time. The forecast days last time were around midday on January 2 and 3. The times when actual congestion occurred were 16:00s on December 26, 17:00s on December 28, 11:00s on December 31, 10:00s to 16:00s on January 2, 9:00 to 10:00s on January 3, and 14:00s on January 4, clustering on December 26 to 31 and January 2 to 4 (NEXCO East Japan announcement of January 6, 2026 and announcement of January 7, 2025, verified 2026-10-14). The days of the week line up differently each year, so last time’s dates cannot be applied as they are. Once the 2026-27 announcement is out, the way to use it is to avoid the forecast days around midday and drive the long sections at other times.

From here on is general advice, not official figures. Blizzard stoppages cannot be fully predicted from forecasts, so leaving one spare day on your return day means you will not be rushed on the day things stop. It is safer not to pack a long drive on the Do-o Expressway into a day when you have a flight. You can also travel by national highway instead of expressways; if you plan to sleep in the vehicle at a PA (parking area), check the locations and cautions in the expressway PA vehicle-sleeping guide. Look at roads that close in winter together with the list in Hokkaido roads that become impassable in winter. Confirm the winter equipment of the vehicle you rent with the rental company when you book.

In what order should you check road information before departure?

The previous forecast document from NEXCO East Japan Hokkaido Regional Head Office lists the following four sources of information before and during travel (announcement of November 26, 2025, verified 2026-10-14). The order to check them is from broad information to detailed information.

1. The DoraPla special site for peak traffic periods. It carries the congestion forecast guide and tips for avoiding congestion. Open it a few days before departure.
2. DoraTora (Drive Traffic). Real-time congestion and restriction information, with live cameras as well. Check it on the morning of departure and at every rest stop.
3. The Hokkaido Regional Head Office’s official X account (@e_nexco_kita). It posts closure information, expected reopening times, and event information.
4. The Hokkaido Regional Head Office’s official LINE account. It lets you receive closure information and expected reopening times, and search for tolls and routes.

Closures of national and prefectural roads cannot be learned from expressway information alone. For national and prefectural roads, check sources such as the Hokkaido Regional Development Bureau’s Kita no Michi Navi before you leave. Decisions on winter road surfaces will be covered in a separate article scheduled for publication on October 20 (the link will be added after it is published).

Pre-departure checklist

When	What to check	Where
From late November	The days and locations of the 2026-27 congestion forecast, and the excluded dates for the holiday discount	NEXCO East Japan Hokkaido Regional Head Office press releases
Early December	Whether a temporary airport parking lot is available, and flight crowding	Hokkaido Airports Co., airlines
A few days before departure	Whether your travel days overlap with forecast days, using the congestion forecast guide	DoraPla special site for peak traffic periods
The day before departure	Winter tires, winter wipers, antifreeze washer fluid, loose wheel nuts	Vehicle inspection (for rentals, ask the company)
The morning of departure	Closures and restrictions, live cameras	DoraTora, the Hokkaido Regional Head Office’s official X

Pages to read next

• Hokkaido New Year temperatures and what to wear
• Hokkaido New Year campervan trip guide
• Hokkaido roads that become impassable in winter
• Hokkaido expressway toll quick-reference table
• Silver Week traffic and holiday discount in Hokkaido